Ready to invest in 2026?
Global trends spur growth
For investors, there is plenty of reason to look optimistically toward 2026. We are entering the new year with a positive stance on equities. At the same time, we see the world around us changing. The rise of AI is unstoppable and comes with significant corporate investments. Deglobalisation is also a trend to keep an eye on – a development that brings both opportunities and challenges.
A question we have frequently received from our clients recently: where should I invest in 2026? The first answer that comes to mind may not be original but is definitely genuine: equities. For much of 2025, we maintained a neutral stance on equities due to uncertainty surrounding US import tariffs. However, in September, when more clarity emerged about the (limited) impact of those tariffs, we became more positive about this asset class.
Higher growth in 2026
A decisive factor in this shift was the resilience of the economy. It became clear that the feared import tariffs would not lead to a recession. Although the global economy slowed, an economic contraction was avoided. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect growth to pick up again, both in Europe and the US. Several positive factors play a role in this, one being low interest rates.
The European Central Bank (ECB) completed a rate-cutting cycle in 2025. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) began lowering rates a few months ago and is expected to continue doing so in 2026. Low interest rates benefit the economy by enabling both consumers and companies to borrow money at relatively low costs. This boosts consumption and spurs business investments.
AI boom
The rise of AI also has a positive effect on the economy. Investments by American companies in AI, for instance, significantly contribute to economic growth in the US. Additionally, there is hope that AI technology will increase labour productivity by enabling workers to operate more efficiently. Indirectly, AI can also have a positive impact, as demonstrated by the equity rally in AI. Consumers who invested in shares of leading US AI-related companies have seen their wealth grow in recent years, which has supported consumer spending.
“The fundamental picture is positive. Companies and governments are investing heavily, while businesses are maintaining high profit margins. Rate cuts by the Fed provide additional support.”
Richard de Groot – Head Global Investment Centre
Deglobalisation
The rise of AI is a trend whose impact will be felt for years to come. The same can be said for a broader geopolitical development that is emerging – a trend that will also play a role in 2026. This global trend can be described in one word: ‘deglobalisation.’ Countries and economic power blocs are increasingly focused on protecting their own economies (protectionism) and less inclined to collaborate.
Race between the US and China
Within the deglobalisation trend, the US and China play a significant role. Both countries are competing for global dominance. Nowadays, however, a leading position in military and economic spheres is only achievable if a country also leads in technology – particularly AI. Consequently, the race for power has evolved into an AI competition, with the US and China striving to maintain or obtain a technological edge.
Europe is trying to keep up with the pace of the competition, both in AI and defence. European countries are increasingly realizing that military support from the US is no longer a given. Therefore, members of the European Union are making large-scale investments in defence.
Investments present opportunities
The deglobalisation trend offers opportunities for you as an investor. Governments in Europe and the US are making significant investments in areas such as defence and infrastructure. Additionally, companies are massively investing in AI – expenditures that are likely to further increase in 2026. We expect all these investments to provide a strong boost to corporate earnings and economic growth in 2026. This is good news for equity markets.
Want to learn more about the opportunities 2026 offers for you as an investor? Read the article Opportunities.
“Deglobalisation offers opportunities, due to the substantial investments governments are making. However, these investments come with a price tag, which poses challenges.”
Ralph Wessels – Investment strategist
What are the challenges of deglobalisation?
In the long term, deglobalisation is not a positive development from an economic perspective. When each country or region develops, produces, and distributes its own products, it is less efficient and more expensive than collaborating across borders. Over time, these higher costs could pressure corporate margins and thereby economic growth.
Additionally, a hefty price tag comes with the massive investments governments are making in defence and infrastructure. To finance all these investments, governments are compelled to issue more government bonds, leading to an increase in public debt. This also poses a challenge. Investors may demand higher interest rates as compensation for investing in these bonds.
Want to learn more about the investment challenges we foresee in the coming period? Read the article Challenges.
Optimistic start to the new year
Looking ahead to 2026, we are optimistic. We expect the eurozone economy to recover in the coming quarters, partly due to the aforementioned substantial investments. In the US, we also anticipate accelerated economic growth in 2026. Furthermore, additional rate cuts by the Fed are expected, contributing to significantly higher growth in the US compared to Europe. We anticipate that higher economic growth will translate into substantial earnings growth and high profit margins for companies next year, which is favourable for equities. Amidst a changing world, 2026 promises to be a good year for equity markets.
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